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The
USDA's Oct. 15 Cattle on Feed Report will continue to show a good
market for cattle, predicts Don Roose, broker-analyst with U.S.
Commodities in West Des Moines.
"We're expecting
a bullish structure to continue in the cattle market for the next
few months. The past reports have shown high placements along with
aggressive marketings, which should continue.
"The astonishing part that
goes with the cattle market is the continued strong consumer demand,
which is the best we have seen since 1987," he adds.
Roose says the cash cattle market should stay
about $66 -$67 for lows, with a high of $71 - $73. He expects this
range to continue through the new year and into the second quarter
of 2000.
Any differences in price, he says, largely will
depend on the market for beef on the consumer end.
The feeder cattle market is expected to continue
on the strong side the rest of the year.
"The
pool for feeder cattle has been smaller recently than in years past,
therefore the demand for the feeders stays strong," says
Roose.
"I
think as long as input costs - feed in particular - stay reasonable
and the fed cattle market stays firm, the need for top-quality feeder
cattle will continue."
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Roose
says there might be a few seasonal runs high and low for the cattle
market. So long as demands stay strong on the consumer side, however,
the general market should stay strong.
The
hog market resembles a change from the heavy bear market in 1998,
Roose notes. "It
is time to get the negativity behind us and make sure that we don't
get those type of problems again."
Even
with a cut in the breeding herds, slaughter is still expected to be
over 2 million head per week through December. He suggests producers
consider protecting their investments.
Roose
expects prices for live cash hogs to be in the mid-$20s for a low
and the mid-$30s for a high through the next several weeks. He adds
prices through the new year will depend a lot on the liquidation of
breeding herds.
"We've seen a lot of inconsistencies in the last
Hog and Pigs Report as far as a decrease in the breeding herd and
the farrowing numbers. I think we are gradually working toward a more
positive structure in the hog market, but it is taking a lot longer
than we expected." |
